Years ago I was invited to Netflix to give a talk on why we should design software for mobile and how. In the Q&A I was told that people wouldn't watch movies or TV on small screens. When I gave the same talk at eBay, I heard people would never buy expensive items without reviewing them on large displays. Obviously neither is true today. So why the disconnect?
In short, many people fixate on the limitations of new technologies instead of their long-term potential. It's happened over and over again.
The Commodore 64 had just 64 kilobytes of memory. Programs could take several minutes to start up. A complete personal computer in the 80s could set you back $4,000 of today’s money. Today's $600 MacBook Neo has none of these problems.
The early Web ran on dial-up connections. Designers were stuck with a 256 color "Web-safe" palette and hacked together page layouts using table and font tags. Today's Web runs applications, TV shows, games, and more.
The first iPhone only connected to 2G networks, had no copy and paste, only had 16 built-in apps and no way to add more. I won't belabor the point but you'd think with all these examples behind us, we'd know early technology limitations don't last. And the fixation continues with AI:
- image models can't draw hands.
- language models hallucinate.
- coding models can't write good code.
- and so on...
These limitations have largely disappeared in short order. And the folks that focused on what AI models couldn't do are now grappling with the larger impact of what they can do. Designers, writers, and developers all of a sudden face capabilities they actively bet against, leaving them vulnerable to job disruptions and more.
If the last forty years are any guide... technology limits are temporary. Plan accordingly.